GrippeCanadaV3, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 000448

Effects of school closure on incidence of pandemic influenza in Alberta, Canada.

Identifieur interne : 000448 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000447; suivant : 000449

Effects of school closure on incidence of pandemic influenza in Alberta, Canada.

Auteurs : David J D. Earn [Canada] ; Daihai He ; Mark B. Loeb ; Kevin Fonseca ; Bonita E. Lee ; Jonathan Dushoff

Source :

Annals of internal medicine [ 1539-3704 ] ; 2012.

RBID : pubmed:22312137

Descripteurs français

KwdFr :
- Adolescent, Alberta (épidémiologie), Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Femelle, Fonctions de vraisemblance, Grippe humaine (), Grippe humaine (transmission), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains, Incidence, Isolement social, Mâle, Pandémies (), Saisons, Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A, Établissements scolaires.
MESH :
- épidémiologie : Alberta, Grippe humaine.
- Adolescent, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Femelle, Fonctions de vraisemblance, Grippe humaine, Humains, Incidence, Isolement social, Mâle, Pandémies, Saisons, Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A, Établissements scolaires.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Adolescent, Alberta (epidemiology), Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Incidence, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (prevention & control), Influenza, Human (transmission), Likelihood Functions, Male, Pandemics (prevention & control), Schools, Seasons, Social Isolation.
MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Alberta.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- prevention & control : Influenza, Human, Pandemics.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Adolescent, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Incidence, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Likelihood Functions, Male, Schools, Seasons, Social Isolation.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Control of pandemic influenza by social-distancing measures, such as school closures, is a controversial aspect of pandemic planning. However, investigations of the extent to which these measures actually affect the progression of a pandemic have been limited.

OBJECTIVE

To examine correlations between the incidence of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza in Alberta, Canada, in 2009 and school closures or weather changes, and to estimate the effects of school closures and weather changes on pH1N1 transmission.

DESIGN

Mathematical transmission models were fit to data that compared the pattern of confirmed pH1N1 cases with the school calendar and weather patterns.

SETTING

Alberta, Canada, from 19 April 2009 to 2 January 2010.

DATA SOURCES

2009 virologic test results, 2006 census data, 2009 daily temperature and humidity data, and 2009 school calendars.

MEASUREMENTS

Age-specific daily counts of positive results for pH1N1 from the complete database of 35 510 specimens submitted to the Alberta Provincial Laboratory for Public Health for virologic testing from 19 April 2009 to 2 January 2010.

RESULTS

The ending and restarting of school terms had a major effect in attenuating the first wave and starting the second wave of pandemic influenza cases. Mathematical models suggested that school closure reduced transmission among school-age children by more than 50% and that this was a key factor in interrupting transmission. The models also indicated that seasonal changes in weather had a significant effect on the temporal pattern of the epidemic.

LIMITATIONS

Data probably represent a small sample of all viral infections. The mathematical models make simplifying assumptions in order to make simulations and analysis feasible.

CONCLUSION

Analysis of data from unrestricted virologic testing during an influenza pandemic provides compelling evidence that closing schools can have dramatic effects on transmission of pandemic influenza. School closure seems to be an effective strategy for slowing the spread of pandemic influenza in countries with social contact networks similar to those in Canada.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and Public Health Agency of Canada.

DOI: 10.7326/0003-4819-156-3-201202070-00005
PubMed: 22312137

Affiliations:

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Le document en format XML

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<author><name sortKey="Earn, David J D" sort="Earn, David J D" uniqKey="Earn D" first="David J D" last="Earn">David J D. Earn</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. earn@math.mcmaster.ca</nlm:affiliation>
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<wicri:regionArea>McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université McMaster</orgName>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Hamilton (Ontario)</settlement>
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<author><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Loeb, Mark B" sort="Loeb, Mark B" uniqKey="Loeb M" first="Mark B" last="Loeb">Mark B. Loeb</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Fonseca, Kevin" sort="Fonseca, Kevin" uniqKey="Fonseca K" first="Kevin" last="Fonseca">Kevin Fonseca</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Lee, Bonita E" sort="Lee, Bonita E" uniqKey="Lee B" first="Bonita E" last="Lee">Bonita E. Lee</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Dushoff, Jonathan" sort="Dushoff, Jonathan" uniqKey="Dushoff J" first="Jonathan" last="Dushoff">Jonathan Dushoff</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
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<author><name sortKey="Fonseca, Kevin" sort="Fonseca, Kevin" uniqKey="Fonseca K" first="Kevin" last="Fonseca">Kevin Fonseca</name>
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<series><title level="j">Annals of internal medicine</title>
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<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Alberta (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Child</term>
<term>Child, Preschool</term>
<term>Female</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Incidence</term>
<term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (prevention & control)</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (transmission)</term>
<term>Likelihood Functions</term>
<term>Male</term>
<term>Pandemics (prevention & control)</term>
<term>Schools</term>
<term>Seasons</term>
<term>Social Isolation</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Alberta (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Enfant</term>
<term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term>
<term>Femelle</term>
<term>Fonctions de vraisemblance</term>
<term>Grippe humaine ()</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (transmission)</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Incidence</term>
<term>Isolement social</term>
<term>Mâle</term>
<term>Pandémies ()</term>
<term>Saisons</term>
<term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term>
<term>Établissements scolaires</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Alberta</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
<term>Pandemics</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Alberta</term>
<term>Grippe humaine</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Child</term>
<term>Child, Preschool</term>
<term>Female</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Incidence</term>
<term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term>
<term>Likelihood Functions</term>
<term>Male</term>
<term>Schools</term>
<term>Seasons</term>
<term>Social Isolation</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Enfant</term>
<term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term>
<term>Femelle</term>
<term>Fonctions de vraisemblance</term>
<term>Grippe humaine</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Incidence</term>
<term>Isolement social</term>
<term>Mâle</term>
<term>Pandémies</term>
<term>Saisons</term>
<term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term>
<term>Établissements scolaires</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>BACKGROUND</b>
</p>
<p>Control of pandemic influenza by social-distancing measures, such as school closures, is a controversial aspect of pandemic planning. However, investigations of the extent to which these measures actually affect the progression of a pandemic have been limited.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>
</p>
<p>To examine correlations between the incidence of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza in Alberta, Canada, in 2009 and school closures or weather changes, and to estimate the effects of school closures and weather changes on pH1N1 transmission.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>DESIGN</b>
</p>
<p>Mathematical transmission models were fit to data that compared the pattern of confirmed pH1N1 cases with the school calendar and weather patterns.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>SETTING</b>
</p>
<p>Alberta, Canada, from 19 April 2009 to 2 January 2010.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>DATA SOURCES</b>
</p>
<p>2009 virologic test results, 2006 census data, 2009 daily temperature and humidity data, and 2009 school calendars.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>MEASUREMENTS</b>
</p>
<p>Age-specific daily counts of positive results for pH1N1 from the complete database of 35 510 specimens submitted to the Alberta Provincial Laboratory for Public Health for virologic testing from 19 April 2009 to 2 January 2010.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b>
</p>
<p>The ending and restarting of school terms had a major effect in attenuating the first wave and starting the second wave of pandemic influenza cases. Mathematical models suggested that school closure reduced transmission among school-age children by more than 50% and that this was a key factor in interrupting transmission. The models also indicated that seasonal changes in weather had a significant effect on the temporal pattern of the epidemic.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>LIMITATIONS</b>
</p>
<p>Data probably represent a small sample of all viral infections. The mathematical models make simplifying assumptions in order to make simulations and analysis feasible.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>
</p>
<p>Analysis of data from unrestricted virologic testing during an influenza pandemic provides compelling evidence that closing schools can have dramatic effects on transmission of pandemic influenza. School closure seems to be an effective strategy for slowing the spread of pandemic influenza in countries with social contact networks similar to those in Canada.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE</b>
</p>
<p>Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and Public Health Agency of Canada.</p>
</div>
</front>
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<Title>Annals of internal medicine</Title>
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<ArticleTitle>Effects of school closure on incidence of pandemic influenza in Alberta, Canada.</ArticleTitle>
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<AbstractText Label="OBJECTIVE" NlmCategory="OBJECTIVE">To examine correlations between the incidence of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza in Alberta, Canada, in 2009 and school closures or weather changes, and to estimate the effects of school closures and weather changes on pH1N1 transmission.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="DESIGN" NlmCategory="METHODS">Mathematical transmission models were fit to data that compared the pattern of confirmed pH1N1 cases with the school calendar and weather patterns.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="SETTING" NlmCategory="METHODS">Alberta, Canada, from 19 April 2009 to 2 January 2010.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="DATA SOURCES" NlmCategory="METHODS">2009 virologic test results, 2006 census data, 2009 daily temperature and humidity data, and 2009 school calendars.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="MEASUREMENTS" NlmCategory="METHODS">Age-specific daily counts of positive results for pH1N1 from the complete database of 35 510 specimens submitted to the Alberta Provincial Laboratory for Public Health for virologic testing from 19 April 2009 to 2 January 2010.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">The ending and restarting of school terms had a major effect in attenuating the first wave and starting the second wave of pandemic influenza cases. Mathematical models suggested that school closure reduced transmission among school-age children by more than 50% and that this was a key factor in interrupting transmission. The models also indicated that seasonal changes in weather had a significant effect on the temporal pattern of the epidemic.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="LIMITATIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Data probably represent a small sample of all viral infections. The mathematical models make simplifying assumptions in order to make simulations and analysis feasible.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="CONCLUSION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Analysis of data from unrestricted virologic testing during an influenza pandemic provides compelling evidence that closing schools can have dramatic effects on transmission of pandemic influenza. School closure seems to be an effective strategy for slowing the spread of pandemic influenza in countries with social contact networks similar to those in Canada.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and Public Health Agency of Canada.</AbstractText>
</Abstract>
<AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Earn</LastName>
<ForeName>David J D</ForeName>
<Initials>DJ</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. earn@math.mcmaster.ca</Affiliation>
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<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>He</LastName>
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<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Loeb</LastName>
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<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fonseca</LastName>
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<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lee</LastName>
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<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName>
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<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015994" MajorTopicYN="N">Incidence</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D053118" MajorTopicYN="Y">Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</DescriptorName>
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<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="N">prevention & control</QualifierName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName>
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<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D016013" MajorTopicYN="N">Likelihood Functions</DescriptorName>
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</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012574" MajorTopicYN="Y">Schools</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012621" MajorTopicYN="N">Seasons</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012934" MajorTopicYN="N">Social Isolation</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
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<affiliations><list><country><li>Canada</li>
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<region><li>Ontario</li>
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<settlement><li>Hamilton (Ontario)</li>
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<tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Dushoff, Jonathan" sort="Dushoff, Jonathan" uniqKey="Dushoff J" first="Jonathan" last="Dushoff">Jonathan Dushoff</name>
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<name sortKey="Loeb, Mark B" sort="Loeb, Mark B" uniqKey="Loeb M" first="Mark B" last="Loeb">Mark B. Loeb</name>
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<country name="Canada"><region name="Ontario"><name sortKey="Earn, David J D" sort="Earn, David J D" uniqKey="Earn D" first="David J D" last="Earn">David J D. Earn</name>
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Effects of school closure on incidence of pandemic influenza in Alberta, Canada.

Effects of school closure on incidence of pandemic influenza in Alberta, Canada.

Source :

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

Pour générer des pages wiki